{"id":213,"date":"2022-06-15T01:13:40","date_gmt":"2022-06-14T17:13:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.feeek.com\/?p=213"},"modified":"2025-01-14T05:32:24","modified_gmt":"2025-01-13T21:32:24","slug":"%e6%80%9d%e7%bb%b4%e6%a6%82%e5%bf%b5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.feeek.com\/?p=213","title":{"rendered":"\u601d\u7ef4\u6982\u5ff5"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/zh.m.wikipedia.org\/zh\/%E6%91%A9%E8%8F%B2%E5%AE%9A%E7%90%86\">\u58a8\u83f2\u5b9a\u5f8b<\/a>(Murphy&#8217;s Law)\uff1a\u4f60\u8d8a\u662f\u62c5\u5fc3\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c31\u4f1a\u8d8a\u5bb9\u6613\u53d1\u751f [\u5982\u679c\u6709\u5169\u7a2e\u6216\u5169\u7a2e\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u53bb\u505a\u67d0\u4ef6\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u800c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u7a2e\u9078\u64c7\u65b9\u5f0f\u5c07\u5c0e\u81f4\u707d\u96e3\uff0c\u5247\u5fc5\u5b9a\u6709\u4eba\u6703\u505a\u51fa\u9019\u7a2e\u9078\u64c7]<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/wiki.mbalib.com\/zh-tw\/%E5%90%89%E5%BE%B7%E6%9E%97%E6%B3%95%E5%88%99\">\u5409\u5fb7\u6797\u6cd5\u5219<\/a>(Jidelim Law)\uff1a\u5f53\u4f60\u628a\u96be\u9898\u6e05\u6e05\u695a\u695a\u5730\u5199\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u4fbf\u5df2\u7ecf\u89e3\u51b3\u4e86\u4e00\u534a<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/baike.baidu.com\/item\/%E7%A6%8F%E5%85%8B%E5%85%B0%E5%AE%9A%E5%BE%8B\/256106\">\u798f\u514b\u5170\u5b9a\u5f8b<\/a>\uff1a\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u600e\u4e48\u505a\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u6700\u597d\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u5c31\u662f\u4e0d\u884c\u52a8;\u6ca1\u5fc5\u8981\u505a\u51b3\u5b9a\u65f6\uff0c\u5c31\u4e0d\u8981\u505a\u51b3\u5b9a<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/wiki.mbalib.com\/zh-tw\/%E6%89%98%E5%88%A9%E5%BE%97%E5%AE%9A%E7%90%86\">\u6258\u5229\u5fb7\u5b9a\u5f8b<\/a>\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u667a\u529b\u662f\u5426\u5c5e\u4e8e\u4e0a\u4e58\uff0c\u53ea\u770b\u8111\u5b50\u91cc\u80fd\u5426\u5bb9\u7eb3\u4e24\u79cd\u76f8\u53cd\u7684\u601d\u60f3<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/wiki.mbalib.com\/zh-tw\/%E6%B2%83%E5%B0%94%E6%A3%AE%E6%B3%95%E5%88%99\">\u5e03\u5c14\u68ee\u6cd5\u5219<\/a>\uff1a\u4f60\u80fd\u5f97\u5230\u591a\u5c11\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4f60\u77e5\u9053\u591a\u5c11<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/wiki.mbalib.com\/wiki\/%E6%B2%83%E5%B0%94%E6%A3%AE%E6%B3%95%E5%88%99\">\u6c83\u5c14\u68ee\u6cd5\u5219<\/a>(Walson)\uff1a\u628a\u4fe1\u606f\u548c\u60c5\u62a5\u653e\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u4f4d\uff0c\u91d1\u94b1\u5c31\u4f1a\u6eda\u6eda\u800c\u6765<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/wiki.mbalib.com\/wiki\/%E5%88%BA%E7%8C%AC%E6%B3%95%E5%88%99\">\u523a\u732c\u7406\u8bba<\/a>(Hedgehog&#8217;s dilemma)\uff1a\u5728\u5929\u51b7\u65f6\u5f7c\u6b64\u9760\u62e2\u53d6\u6696\uff0c\u4f46\u4fdd\u6301\u4e00\u5b9a\u8ddd\u79bb\uff0c\u4ee5\u514d\u4e92\u76f8\u523a\u4f24<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/wiki.mbalib.com\/wiki\/%E6%B3%A2%E5%85%8B%E5%AE%9A%E7%90%86\">\u6ce2\u514b\u5b9a\u7406<\/a>\uff1a\u53ea\u6709\u5728\u4e89\u8fa9\u4e2d\u624d\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u8bde\u751f\u6700\u597d\u7684\u4e3b\u610f\u548c\u6700\u597d\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/zhuanlan.zhihu.com\/p\/33915823\">\u97e6\u5947\u5b9a\u5f8b<\/a>\uff1a\u5341\u4e2a\u670b\u53cb\u53cd\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff0c\u4f60\u518d\u4e3b\u52a8\u4e5f\u4f1a\u52a8\u6447<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/baike.baidu.com\/item\/%E5%90%89%E5%B0%94%E4%BC%AF%E7%89%B9%E6%B3%95%E5%88%99\/9717003\">\u5409\u5c14\u4f2f\u7279\u6cd5\u5219<\/a>\uff1a\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e2d\u7684\u6700\u5927\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u8ddf\u4f60\u8bf4\u8be5\u600e\u4e48\u505a<\/li>\n<li>5why\u5206\u6790\u6cd5\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u9047\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u89e3\u51b3\u4e0d\u4e86\u7684\u96be\u9898\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u4e0d\u505c\u5730\u95ee\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u5c31\u80fd\u627e\u5230\u7b54\u6848<\/li>\n<li>\u8d1d\u7d22\u65af\u4f20\uff1a\u4f60\u5982\u679c\u8ffd\u9010\u91d1\u94b1\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u6c38\u8fdc\u6293\u4e0d\u4f4f\u5b83\uff1b\u4f46\u4f60\u5982\u679c\u8ffd\u9010\u6fc0\u60c5\uff0c\u91d1\u94b1\u5c31\u4f1a\u6765\u8ffd\u9010\u4f60<\/li>\n<li>\u91d1\u878d\u5468\u671f\uff1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7cfb\u7edf\u5c31\u50cf\u4e00\u90e8\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0a\u8fd0\u884c\u7684\u673a\u5668<\/li>\n<li>\u5b66\u4e60\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1a\u7406\u67e5\u5fb7\u5f17\u66fc\u5b66\u4e60\u6cd5(\u7528\u8f6c\u8ff0\u3001\u6559\u7ed9\u522b\u4eba\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5de9\u56fa\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u6982\u5ff5\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u5854\u897f\u4f57\u9677\u9631\uff1a\u610f\u6307\u5018\u82e5\u516c\u6743\u529b\u5931\u53bb\u5176\u516c\u4fe1\u529b\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u5982\u4f55\u53d1\u8a00\u6216\u662f\u5904\u4e8b\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u5747\u5c06\u7ed9\u4e88\u5176\u8d1f\u9762\u8bc4\u4ef7<\/li>\n<li>\u4fee\u6614\u5e95\u5fb7\u9677\u9631\uff1a\u7528\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u5f53\u65b0\u5174\u5f3a\u56fd\u5a01\u80c1\u5230\u73b0\u6709\u5f3a\u56fd\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u9738\u4e3b\u5730\u4f4d\u65f6\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u660e\u663e\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u503e\u5411<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/zh.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/%E9%95%BF%E9%9E%AD%E6%95%88%E5%BA%94\">\u957f\u97ad\u6548\u5e94<\/a>(Bullwhip effect)\uff0c\u6216\u79f0\u725b\u97ad\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5728\u9700\u6c42\u9884\u6d4b\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u9500\u552e\u6e20\u9053\u4e2d\u88ab\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u3002<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/zh.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/%E7%9C%BC%E9%95%9C%E8%9B%87%E6%95%88%E5%BA%94\">\u773c\u955c\u86c7\u6548\u5e94<\/a>(Cobra effect)\uff1a\u6307\u7684\u662f\u9488\u5bf9\u67d0\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u4f7f\u5f97\u8be5\u95ee\u9898\u6076\u5316<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u793e\u4ea4\u6982\u5ff5\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u5982\u679c\u662f\u8bb2\u7a76\u642d\u914d\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u90a3\u7a7f\u7740\u7684\u989c\u8272\u8d8a\u7d20\uff0c\u5185\u5fc3\u60f3\u7684\u8d8a\u591a\uff1b\u53cd\u800c\u90a3\u4e9b\u7a7f\u7740\u989c\u8272\u82b1\u54e8\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u5185\u5fc3\u6bd4\u8f83\u5355\u7eaf<\/li>\n<li>\u8fdb\u5165\u516c\u5171\u573a\u5408\uff0c\u653e\u8f7b\u811a\u6b65\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u6027\u683c\u6e29\u548c\uff0c\u51e1\u662f\u90fd\u4f1a\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eba\u8003\u8651<\/li>\n<li>\u90a3\u4e9b\u603b\u662f\u72ec\u6765\u72ec\u5f80\uff0c\u4e0d\u592a\u5408\u7fa4\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u5bb9\u6613\u8ba9\u4eba\u4f4e\u4f30<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u4e16\u4fd7\u7406\u8bba\/\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u5931\u8d25\u4e0d\u662f\u6210\u529f\u4e4b\u6bcd<\/li>\n<li>\u517b\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e60\u60ef\u4e0d\u662f21\u5929\uff0c\u800c\u81f3\u5c11\u9700\u898166\u5929<\/li>\n<li>\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u53ef\u4ee5\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u4e00\u5fc3\u591a\u7528<\/li>\n<li>\u6b63\u5411\u79ef\u6781\u601d\u7ef4\u8005\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u6700\u5148\u751f\u5b58\u4e0d\u4e0b\u53bb\u8005<\/li>\n<li>\u7b2c\u4e00\u539f\u7406\u601d\u7ef4<\/li>\n<li>\u8d1f\u503a\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u4eba\u8d8a\u5bb9\u6613\u6210\u529f<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u58a8\u83f2\u5b9a\u5f8b(Murphy&#8217;s Law)\uff1a\u4f60\u8d8a\u662f\u62c5\u5fc3\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c31\u4f1a\u8d8a\u5bb9\u6613\u53d1\u751f [\u5982\u679c\u6709\u5169\u7a2e\u6216\u5169\u7a2e\u4ee5\u4e0a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-213","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-8"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.feeek.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/213","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.feeek.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.feeek.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.feeek.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.feeek.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=213"}],"version-history":[{"count":13,"href":"https:\/\/www.feeek.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/213\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":247,"href":"https:\/\/www.feeek.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/213\/revisions\/247"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.feeek.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=213"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.feeek.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=213"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.feeek.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=213"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}